$100/kWh Tesla Battery Cells This Year, $100/kWh Tesla Battery Packs In 2020, EIA estimates [pdf] that a new natural gas power plant’s overnight cost, CleanTechnica member, supporter, or ambassador. Where will Tesla make these batteries? They claim that Tesla’s battery cell cost is at $111 per kWh and LG Chem is at $148 per kWh. But here’s the thing, battery backup doesn’t just replace peakers. This is my conjecture on what may be afoot, especially if these prices are anywhere close to correct. I broke down in another article why I have a hunch that the Tesla Cybertruck is going to include a battery pack that is costing Tesla around $108/kWh at the pack level (or better! If Tesla is the clear market leader, I see no reason why it wouldn’t capture a huge segment of this market, generating nearly $1 billion per quarter from US sales alone. Does the Megapack include these new batteries? Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries. If this is true, NextEra’s CEO, Jim Robo, would have been exactly accurate when he stated last year that “post 2020, there may never be another peaker built in the US.”. Therefore, if we assume the 300 mile range Semi has a battery pack of 600 kWh, the cost for that battery pack would be $64,956. CleanTechnica is the #1 cleantech-focused news & analysis website in the US & the world, focusing primarily on electric cars, solar energy, wind energy, & energy storage. If my analysis is even close to right, for all of the Cybertruck’s divisive design, the reveal event could be the Trojan Horse that signaled the end of huge portions of the fossil fuel era. Sign up for our free daily newsletter or weekly newsletter to never miss a story. There is no confirmation that this technology will be in the Tesla Semi, but I’ve felt like the delay in deployment had to do with Tesla swapping battery tech. It is also lighter and can attain a much higher range. Editor’s update, digging through the archives, I found this article from June 2018: $100/kWh Tesla Battery Cells This Year, $100/kWh Tesla Battery Packs In 2020. Tesla is aiming to reduce the cost of future packs to less than $6,000, which would put the cell cost at well under $100/kWh. While this is still obviously a big cost, with the base price of $150,000, it leaves over $85,000 for cab design and profits. On a volume-weighted average basis, battery electric vehicle pack costs are … VIDEO 2:34 02:34 Why Tesla's expected to have lowest battery costs … This only applies 5 days a week, however. Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Using the $190 per kWh at the pack level cost that has been mentioned in the past, now imagine the Powerwall costing the same amount, but containing a 24 kWh battery in it instead. “Tesla simply has been engineering these packs longer than its competitors, and therefore it has a technology lead that is significant,” Sam Jaffe, Cairn’s Managing Director, told CNBC. While this is still obviously a big cost, with the base price of $150,000, it leaves over $85,000 for cab design and profits. The Tesla Powerwall is currently a 13.5 kWh system and costs $6,500. Published on November 24th, 2019 | If it turns out that pack weights have come down significantly, that just helps efficiency for its vehicle line up further. I don’t know if it does yet, but I strongly believe that it will, and here is where the game really changes. I am going to be begging Tesla and CleanTechnica to send me to the Battery Investor Day so I can try to find out more. ), but I decided to keep running the math to calculate what it would mean for other Tesla products. Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019 According to this article from GE last year about the threat energy storage poses to peaker plants, the US will need about 20 GW of peaking power capacity to be installed over the next 10 years, with 60% being installed between 2023 and 2027. Shares in two battery suppliers to Tesla, ... is reached when battery packs cost $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh). Tesla's battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors. If Tesla controls the market for batteries priced this low, it will be unstoppable in both the automotive and energy storage business. I concede that, with how protective the industry is, this could be a high number. Finally, one really important point — I’ve been challenged already on the battery costs when I was discussing this with a different person, one who looked at my numbers and said that the idea that Tesla was paying $190 at the pack level for its batteries at any recent time was far too expensive. We don’t know the size of the battery on the Tesla Semi, but we do know it goes a mile using less than two kWh of battery. From 2010 to 2019, lithium-ion battery prices (when looking at the battery pack as a whole) have fallen from $1,100 per kilowatt-hour to $156/kwh—an 87% cut. A 24 kWh battery at the same price would take me 7.42 years. Therefore, Tesla could install about 590 MWh of storage for the same price as that peaker plant. Since we don’t have the capacity sizing of the portfolio (the article noted that part of it would be 400 MWh), it’s hard to make a straight-up comparison as to the pricing Tesla could get here, but if we assume that Tesla can start installing 226 MWh of capacity for every $100 million spent, this builds in an additional $9 million in profit above the highest price I’ve seen Hornsdale quoted. It also makes this statement from Elon Musk on the Q3 2019 Tesla earnings call really stand out: “I think there is generally a lack of understanding or appreciation for the growth of Tesla Energy, as Kunal was talking about. So, how does the payoff time here look? (Note: this doesn’t include the installation costs.). 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For example, the firm estimates that Tesla's battery pack costs fell from $128 per kWh in 2019 to $115 per kWh in 2020. In other areas — like California, where the peak rates are significantly larger — it’s even faster. The type of battery packs used by other automakers cost, on average, more than $200 per kWh in 2019, according to Cairn. If I’m correct, this would be a really good reason for the delay. Therefore, if we assume the 300 mile range Semi has a battery pack of 600 kWh, the cost for that battery pack would be $64,956. Tesla’s battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors, which would put the cost of a 90-kWh pack at around $14,000. Advertise with CleanTechnica to get your company in front of millions of monthly readers. Consider becoming a CleanTechnica member, supporter, or ambassador — or a patron on Patreon. How does it expect to bring capacity up to the levels needed to supply the world with gigawatts of batteries? If it only makes a quarter of the profit of the Hornsdale battery, it still manages to pay for itself within 6 years. Megapack can also be DC-connected directly to solar, creating seamless renewable energy plants.”. We don’t know the size of the battery on the Tesla Semi, but we do know it goes a mile using less than two kWh of battery. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Is the Megapack a test bed for these batteries? The world is a much bigger market, though. I have so many more questions on this now than I did, but I’m really excited to find out more. Batteries boot instantly. The 500 mile range Semi would have a battery pack around 1000 kWh, at a cost of $108,260, leaving the $200,000 model to have nearly $90,00… Hornsdale has certain market factors that are working in its favor, but if we saw half the savings from the hypothetical 590 MWh storage plant in my example above (noting that it would be 4.57 times larger than Hornsdale), this new battery plant would pay for itself within 3 years, earning $91.4 million a year. This means that Battery costs for Tesla vehicles likely declined from around $230 per kWh in 2016 to $127 in 2019. Tesla’s battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors. Tesla is the only automaker currently using cylindrical battery cells - the others use pouch or prismatic cells, which meant pack-level costs of over $200 per kWh in 2019, according to Cairn. It isn’t too hard to see Tesla Energy generating far more revenue from this, with potentially significant margins. Tesla's battery packs cost US$156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors, which would put the cost of a 90-kWh pack at around US$14,000. So to answer the question on the price of the Tesla Model 3’s battery, the cost per kWh is at $150 which equates to $7,500 of this model’s battery pack. This is the most underappreciated group.”, “But it would be difficult for me to overstate the degree to which, I think, Tesla Energy is going to be a major part of Tesla’s activity in the future.”. This article from Greentech Media indicates that California decided to not build a 262 megawatt gas peaker plant, instead opting for a 195 MW portfolio of batteries. What would this mean? Frugal Moogal A businessman first, the Frugal Moogal looks at EVs from the perspective of a business. That would mean California’s 262 MW gas peaker plant would have cost a minimum of $261,738,000 to construct, never mind how much more it would cost to operate. The Tesla battery cost about $50 million (or maybe $91 million, I’ve seen it cited as both) to construct and has 129 megawatt-hours of energy storage (or 129,000 kWh). If all manufacturers’ battery prices are dropping this quickly, the market for EVs and grid-based battery backup is going to absolutely explode in the next few years, which is also good news for Tesla. BloombergNEF noted in a blog post that battery pack prices have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020. If it is able to deliver on the 56-per-cent reduction target that would bring costs down to roughly $65/kWh. Facebook Twitter Linkedin EMail Start a Conversation At that rate, it will pay for itself within three years. The EIA estimates [pdf] that a new natural gas power plant’s overnight cost (or the cost to build it if you could build the plant without incurring any interest costs) is $999/kW to construct. Tesla Cofounder Ian Wright: How Tesla Made Cars Into Computers, Ford Mustang Mach-E Christmas Ad — Cool, Fun, Great Start (& A Tad Confusing), New Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Powered Fast Chargers Announced, Renewables = 20.4% of US Electricity Generation. It stabilizes the grid at all times. Some researchers estimate that price parity, or the point at which electric vehicles are equal in value to internal combustion cars, is reached when battery packs cost $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh). However, the value proposition of a Powerwall is also that it backs up your house during power outages, meaning that even if the payback period is 10 years, it becomes more compelling. But here’s the thing — even if it the pack number is too high, if we are maintaining a similar margin for the base Cybertruck as we are on the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, it would either mean that pack costs have come down even further than my numbers are anticipating, or pack weights have come down significantly. Also, I don’t think Tesla hit $100/kWh cells in 2018, so I would expect the 2020 forecast to be delayed/pushed back to 2021. by Frugal Moogal. Tesla's battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, according to electric vehicle consulting firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors. As of April 2020, the Tesla Model S can be purchased in Long Range and Performance versions, both with a battery of 100 kWh. In that light, $100/kWh by end of 2021 sounds very reasonable. Let’s take a look at the Hornsdale Power Reserve. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? At $108.26, we can get 226,399 kWh (or 226.4 megawatt-hours) for the same expense. If I’m close to right, we are about to see a major shift in costs. In the long term, I expect Tesla Energy to be of the same or roughly the same size as Tesla’s automotive sector or business. Bloomberg New … And there are additional savings. Tesla’s battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019, as indicated by electric vehicle counseling firm Cairn Energy Research Advisors, which would put the expense of a 90-kWh pack at around $14,000. The smallest difference in any of SCE’s plans is the 19 cent per kWh difference in its TOU-D-4-9PM program. News is published on CleanTechnica.com, while reports are published on Future-Trends.CleanTechnica.com/Reports/ and buying guides are here. I saved what I’m the most excited about until the end. All of the options here are outstanding, and I’m really, really excited to see what the future holds. Is this technology already in use anywhere? Should Tesla Spin Off Its Supercharger & Destination Charging Networks? 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